After analyzing July’s market data across Morris, Somerset, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Mercer, and Warren counties, I’m seeing the kind of market evolution that creates real opportunities for informed buyers and sellers.
Let me walk you through what’s actually happening – and what it means for your real estate decisions.
The Numbers Tell Six Different Stories
While New Jersey statewide saw inventory climb 12.7% compared to last year, our six-county area shows just how local real estate really is. That might sound like a broad trend, but here’s the reality: each county is performing completely differently.
Morris County is actually defying the statewide trend entirely. Inventory dropped 13% while maintaining a $750K median price. Properties are selling in 24 days – faster than the regional average. This tells me buyer demand in Morris remains incredibly strong, bucking the broader pattern.
Somerset County shows similar resilience. At $820K median, it’s our priciest market, but inventory is only up 6.7% and homes are moving at a steady pace. The luxury market appears recession-proof right now.
Middlesex County tells a different story entirely. Inventory surged 27% – more than double the state average – and days on market extended to 32 days. At $625K median, we’re seeing genuine buyer resistance emerge, giving purchasers leverage they haven’t had in years.
Mercer County shows the most dramatic shift. Inventory jumped 19.4% and market times are extending. At $565K median, it’s our most affordable option, but buyers are clearly getting pickier and taking their time.
Hunterdon County presents an interesting case. Despite statewide inventory growth, Hunterdon actually saw a slight 2.3% decline in available homes. Prices jumped to $730K, but sales volume dropped 7.5%. We’re seeing some buyer resistance at these price points, creating a standoff between limited supply and affordability constraints.
Warren County rounds out the group with 8.9% inventory growth. At $480K median, it offers the best value in our area, and buyers have leverage here they haven’t enjoyed in years.
What This Means for Buyers
The strategic play right now is preparation, not panic. We’re heading into September and October – historically our second-busiest inventory period after spring. Here’s what smart buyers are doing:
Get pre-approved now. Mortgage rates are still elevated, but inventory selection varies dramatically by location and is about to shift again. You want to be ready to move when the right property hits the market.
Choose your county strategically. In Morris and Somerset, you’re still competing in a seller’s market. But in Middlesex, Mercer, and Warren, you’re seeing genuine buyer leverage return. Properties sitting 30+ days are open to negotiation in ways they haven’t been since 2020.
Consider the commute equation differently. With Morris and Somerset maintaining premium pricing despite broader market shifts, buyers willing to expand their search radius by 15-20 minutes are finding 20-30% savings in places like Warren County.
Strategic Advice for Sellers
The window is shifting, but it hasn’t closed. Here’s how to position yourself based on your location:
In Morris and Somerset: You can still price confidently, but don’t get complacent. Even these strong markets are showing signs of buyer selectivity.
In Middlesex and Mercer: Price is everything now. The days of pricing high and expecting bidding wars are over. Your agent needs to analyze closed sales from the past 60 days, not six months ago.
In all markets: Timing matters more than before. If you’re thinking about selling, August listings will beat the September inventory surge. Once October hits, you’re competing with everyone who waited.
Looking Ahead to Fall
Historically, while spring delivers our largest inventory surge, September and October bring the second-biggest wave of new listings – typically 40-50% more than August. This year, given the pent-up demand from sellers who waited for better conditions, that fall surge could be even more pronounced in counties already showing inventory growth.
For buyers, this creates the best selection we’ve seen since spring. For sellers, especially in counties where inventory is already building, it means increased competition is coming.
The Bottom Line
We’re not seeing a market crash – we’re seeing market differentiation. After three years of conditions that favored sellers universally, we’re moving toward something more nuanced where location and strategy matter more than ever.
Your home’s value isn’t disappearing. Across our six counties, median prices average $687K – still 10% above state levels. If you bought in recent years, your equity position remains strong.
The key is understanding that different strategies work in different counties now. What works in Morris County won’t work in Warren County, and what worked last year won’t work this fall.
Ready to make a move in this evolving market? Let’s discuss how to position yourself for success in these new conditions – whether you’re buying, selling, or just want to understand your options.
